Drivers and Impacts of Growth in SEND Provision in England
“Understanding what changes when a child receives an autism diagnosis can help us understand the connection between rising diagnosis and growing demand for SEND provision.”
This study is led by Dr David Frayman. It began in 2026 and is expected to finish in 2028.
This project was reviewed and approved through ECHILD's data access process. Learn how ECHILD data is kept safe.
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We want to understand what has driven the recent increase in SEND provision and what difference targeted funding for additional needs makes to children’s outcomes.
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In England, increasing numbers of children are receiving special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) support, placing increasing pressure on the SEND system. However, we do not have a complete picture of what lies behind the rising demand for SEND provision, and there is limited evidence on whether targeted funding for additional needs benefits children’s outcomes.
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We will use linked information about children’s early health and educational characteristics to distinguish growth in SEND provision in England arising from changes in children’s needs from growth arising from changes in the identification and escalation of support. To examine the effects of funding targeted at additional needs, we will use a quasi-experimental approach that exploits differences in funding received by local areas due to national funding rules. We will also explore the potential to assess how access to mental health services affects special educational needs provision and educational outcomes.
Find out more
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Why does this matter?
What do we want to find out?
What we will do
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Introduction
The number of children and young people receiving special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) provision in England has risen substantially, particularly at the highest levels of support. This has placed increasing pressure on schools, local authorities and public spending, but the reasons for this growth are not yet well understood. This project will investigate how far rising SEND provision reflects changes in the underlying needs of children and young people, rather than changes in how needs are identified and support is allocated. It will also examine whether additional public spending on SEND improves children’s educational and health outcomes and explore interactions between SEND provision and access to mental health support.
Methods and analysis
We will use ECHILD to link information on children’s health and early development with longitudinal education records for pupils in England. We will compare successive cohorts to examine how the relationship between indicators of underlying need and recorded SEND provision has changed over time, including whether patterns differ across population groups and geographical areas. This will help distinguish changes in children’s underlying needs from changes in the identification and escalation of SEND support.
To investigate the effects of additional SEND spending, we will use a quasi-experimental approach that exploits variation in the resources available to local areas arising from national funding arrangements. We will examine whether greater resources for SEND affect educational outcomes including attainment, attendance and exclusion, as well as selected measures of healthcare use, and whether effects differ between groups of pupils. The project will also seek to examine whether access to mental health support influences SEND identification and subsequent education and health outcomes.
ECHILD data used
National Pupil Database (NPD)
Hospital Episode Statistics (HES): Emergency Care Data Set (ECDS), Mental Health Services Data Set (MHSDS), Maternity Services Data Set (MSDS).